Pirates vs Reds Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 21 (9/21): MLB

Pirates vs Reds Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 21 (9/21): MLB

Credit: photo by Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

 
Odds
Time 6:40 p.m. EST
Pirates money line +165
Pirates run line +1.5 (-115)
Reds money line -200
Reds run line -1.5 (-105)
Over / under 9 (-105)

 

Key stats
  Pirates Reds
Record 56-94 78-73
Road / home record 22-53 40-35
Last 10 record 6-4 4-6
Streak 2L 1W
Over / under record 71-71-8 75-69-7
Runs / game 3.69 4.83
Runs allowed / game 5.09 4.65

 

Preview

Tonight we have the Pirates taking on the Reds.  The Pirates enter this game winning 6 of their last 10 games, going on a tiny run before the season comes to a close.  They are firmly out of the playoff picture as their hitting and pitching has been bad all year.  The Reds enter this game 3 games back for a NL wildcard spot.  They will look to get back on track tonight against a bad Pirates pitcher and bullpen.

Pitching matchup

Pirates

Mitch Keller (4-11, 6.14 ERA) will be on the mound for the visiting Pirates when they take on the Reds. Keller enters this game with a 1.74 WHIP and 5.03 XFIP. This season he carries a 20.7% strikeout rate along with a high 10% walk rate.  Keller for the most part has been abysmal in his time in the majors.  The young right hander has been hit extemely hard by both sides of the plate, you add the free passes he gives out and its a recipe for disaster.  He has shown some upside though, when he is able to command the strikezone he can rack up the strikeouts and limit an opposing offense.  He will have his hands full with a Reds offense that has been quite good against right handed hurlers this season.

Reds

Tyler Mahle (12-5, 3.59 ERA) will take the mound for the Reds when they host the Pirates. Mahle enters this game with a 1.20 WHIP and 4.14 XFIP.  This season he carries a nice 26.6% strikeout rate along with an 8% walk rate. Mahle has been solid this year, albeit his severe reverse splits.  He has struggled with right handed hitters this season and has been giving up some premium contact and power in the split.  Good news for him is that this Pirates team should roll out a good amount of left handed hitters which plays into the hands of Mahle.  He has had zero problems this season against the Pirates in his 3 outtings against them and I expect more of the same tonight.

Prediction

Keller has been abysmal all year while Mahle has been solid.  Mahle has mowed down this Pirates team all year and backed by his bats the Reds should be able to pick up an easy win tonight.

PICK: Reds -1.5 (-105)

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