Mets vs Nationals Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 6 (9/6): MLB

Mets vs Nationals Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 6 (9/6): MLB

Credit: photo by Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

 
Odds
Time 1:05 p.m. EST
Mets money line -132
Mets run line -1.5 (+130)
Nationals money line +110
Nationals run line +1.5 (-149)
Over / under 9.0 (-120)

 

Key stats
  Mets Nationals
Record 69-68 56-80
Road / home record 28-41 32-39
Last 10 record 7-3 2-8
Streak W1 L1
Over / under record 59-71-7 61-70-5
Runs / game 3.83 4.43
Runs allowed / game 3.97 4.96

 

Preview

The New York Mets are in Washington to play the final game of a 5 game series against the Nationals Monday afternoon.  The Mets have taken 3 of the first 4 in the series, winning yesterday 13-6.  They took 2 of 3 in the series in late August and swept the 3 game series in mid-August.  The Mets find themselves 3.5 games back of the Braves in the NL East race and have now won 7 of their last 8.  The Nationals, with only pride to play for, have dropped 8 of their last 9.

The Mets have been scoring runs, averaging 5.9 runs per game over their last 8 games.

The Nationals' bats have also been scoring, averaging 4.9 runs per game over the last 9 (of which they've lost 8), but pitching has done them in.

Pitching matchup

Mets

Trevor Williams (4-2, 4.27 ERA) pitches for the Mets after joining from the Cubs in August.  He's coming off a 5.38 ERA 2019 and 6.18 ERA 2020.  He's making his third start for the Mets, with two additional relief appearances.  Since joining New York, he pitched well in August, going a combined 13.0 innings, giving up 1 earned run on 8 hits, 4 walks and 9 strikeouts.  He went 4.2 innings, giving up 2 earned runs, against the Nationals in May when he was with the Cubs.  Nationals batters have gone 7 for 33 (.212 AVG) against Williams, with 2 home runs, 5 walks and 6 strikeouts.

Nationals

Patrick Corbin (7-14, 6.26 ERA) makes his 27th start for the Nationals in a forgettable year.  He had a good 2019, with a 3.25 ERA, and a decent 2020, with a 4.66 ERA.  He's made 6 starts since the start of August, and has not done well.  He's gone a combined 32.0 innings, giving up 28 runs on 34 hits, with 10 walks and 32 strikeouts.  In two starts against the Mets this year, he went a combined 10.0 innings, giving up 6 earned runs.  Mets batters have gone 57 for 187 (.305 AVG) against Corbin, with 15 home runs.

Prediction

The Mets are in the thick of the NL East race and have been scoring almost 6 runs per game in their last 8 games (where they've won 7).  Williams is only likely to go 4-5 innings, but the Mets bullpen is 10th best in the Majors, with a 3.89 ERA.  The Nationals have been scoring runs, but Corbin has been horrible lately.  We like the Mets to take the final game of the series, and we have an eye on the over as both teams have been putting bat on ball.

PICK: Mets money line (-132)

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