Braves vs Brewers Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 8 (10/8): MLB

Braves vs Brewers Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 8 (10/8): MLB

Credit: photo by Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

 
Odds
Time 4:37 p.m. EST
Braves money line +129
Braves run line +1.5 (-170)
Brewers money line -154
Brewers run line -1.5 (+145)
Over / under 7 (-110)

 

Key stats
  Braves Brewers
Record 88-72 95-67
Road / home record 46-35 45-36
Last 10 record 8-2 4-6
Streak 2W 4L
Over / under record 74-77-9 76-76-10
Runs / game 4.91 4.56
Runs allowed / game 4.06 3.85

 

Preview

Tonight we finally kick things off in th NLDS as we have game one between the Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers. This will be a best of five series as the first two games will be played in Milwaukee and then they will travel on over to Atlanta. Both teams boast some quailty bats and while both teams also have quality arms to rely on the Brewers still have a slight upper hand in the pitching department. 

The Braves come into this series in very good form, going 8-2 in their last ten games to end the regular season. They have been without their key player in Ronald Acuna for a good portion of the season due to injury and they have faired just fine during that time. They have plenty of power up and down the lineup but what usually comes with all that power has been the occasional high strikeout games. If this team can put the ball in play against this elite pitching staff they can find success in this series. They will roll out an experienced pitcher in Charlie Morton today to pick up their first win in this series.

The Brewers enter this series struggling a bit, going 4-6 in their last ten games and losing four straight to end the regular season. This team might not boast the power that Atlanta does but they are backed by an elite pitching staff that will always keep them in ball games. They still have power though and make plenty of contact but as the story is with the Braves the Brewers are also prone to having games where they strikeout a lot. They'll be throwing out Corbin Burnes to get things started in this series, and absolute unit to go out there and help pick up their first win in this series.

 

Pitching matchup

Braves

Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34 ERA) will be on the mound for game one when they take on the Brewers. Morton has plenty of postseason experience as he has a record of 7-3, 3.38 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP in 61 innings of work in his career. Morton enters this game with a 1.04 WHIP and 3.51 XFIP. This season he carries a 28.7% strikeout rate along with an 8% walk rate. He has faced off one time with this Brewers team during the regular season where he went six innings, allowing two earned runs, while punching out six. Morton has been solid for the Braves this season, he keeps the ball down evidenced by his low fly ball rate, and allows medium contact to both sides of the plate. Morton is well versed in what it takes to get the job done in the postseason and if his bats can back him up he can find succes against this Brewers team. 

Brewers

Corbin Burnes (11-5, 2.43 ERA) will be on the bump today for game one against the Braves. Burnes has some postseason experience, coming into this game with a record of 1-0, 2.00 ERA, and 0.56 WHIP in his 9 innings of work. He has made six appearances in the postseason but today will be his first start. Burnes enters this game with a 0.94 WHIP and 2.48 XFIP. This season he carries a 36.2% strikeout rate and a 5.1% walk rate, both elite numbers. He has faced off with this Braves squad one time during the regular season going four innings, allowing five earned runs, while striking out six. Burnes has been extremely effective for the Brewers this year. He induces soft and medium contact to both sides of the plate and thats also paird with a low fly ball rate. The Braves will be without Ronald Acuna but make no mistake this lineup still has plenty of quality bats in its lineup that combine for a .211 ISO and .335 wOBA against right handed pitching this season. Burnes has been a stud all year but he could have his hands full against a strong Braves team that boasts plenty of power within.  

Prediction

I'll be going with the Atlants Braves in this one as I think they become the first road team along with the White Sox today to pick up a win this postseason. The Braves come into this game swinging the bats great and have good history against Burnes. It also helps that this Atlanta pitching staff has kicked it into another gear in the second half of the season. Burnes as regressed some since his hot start to the year and you add in that the Brewers bats are struggling a bit and I can see Morton coming out and putting on a solid performance.

PICK: Braves ML   (+129)

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