Red Sox vs Nationals Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 1 (10/1): MLB

Red Sox vs Nationals Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 1 (10/1): MLB

Credit: photo by Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

 
Odds
Time 7:07 p.m. EST
Red Sox money line -198
Red Sox run line -1.5 (-125)
Nationals money line +163
Nationals run line +1.5 (+105)
Over / under 9.5 (-110)

 

Key stats
  Red Sox Nationals
Record 89-70 65-94
Road / home record 40-38 35-43
Last 10 record 5-5 4-6
Streak 1L 2L
Over / under record 73-83-3 73-80-6
Runs / game 5.11 4.49
Runs allowed / game 4.65 5.06

 

Preview

Tonight we have the Red Sox taking on the Nationals. The Red Sox enter this game after losing 2 of 3 to the lowly Orioles as they are losing at the wrong time. They are now tied with the Mariners for the second wildcard spot in the AL, and they sit 1 game ahead of the Blue Jays who get a series with Baltimore. The Red Sox need to win these games as the Yankees have a tough series with the Rays, the Blue Jays take on the weak Orioles in their series, and the Mariners get the weak and depleted Angels in their series. Both these wildcard spots could be up for grabs given the series all these teams are playing in.

Pitching matchup

Red Sox

Eduardo Rodriguez (11-8, 4.93 ERA) will be on the mound for the Red Sox when they travel to D.C. to take on the Nats. Rodriguez enters this game with a 1.39 WHIP and 3.68 XFIP. This season he carries a 27% strikeout rate along with a 6.8% walk rate. Rodriguez has been one of the most unluckiest pitchers in the league this season. He has been a candidate to regress all year and it just hasn't happened. He comes in with great underlying numbers and he has been succesful in his pevious 3 starts. He gets to take on a weak and depleted Nationals team tonight that he should have no problems with.

Nationals

Josh Rogers (2-1, 2.73 ERA) will be on the mound for the the Nationals when they host the Red Sox. Rogers enters this game with a 1.21 WHIP and 5.86 XFIP. This season he carries a low 15.3% strikeout rate along with an 8.9% walk rate. Rogers is a candidate for a good bit of regression when you look at the underlying numbers. He has handled left handed hitters very well this season, while really struggling against right handed bats, allowing premium contact and power in the split. He could have his hands full tonight against a playoff hopeful Red Sox team that is struggling a bit.

Prediction

I have to take the Red Sox in this one as much as it pains me to do so. I told my buddy that they'd lose their wildcard spot and that the Blue Jays would get the second spot along with the Yankees but I did not think for one minute that it would actually happen with a series against Baltimore and the Nationals left on the schedule but here we are. They should however be able to save face in this matchup tonight and pick up an easy win as long as the bats show up, which I think they do.

PICK: Red Sox -1.5 (-125)

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