Nationals vs Marlins Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 21 (9/21): MLB

Nationals vs Marlins Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 21 (9/21): MLB

Credit: photo by Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

 
Odds
Time 6:40 p.m. EST
Nationals money line +126
Nationals run line +1.5 (-150)
Marlins money line -150
Marlins run line -1.5 (+130)
Over / under 8 (-110)

 

Key stats
  Nationals Marlins
Record 61-89 64-86
Road / home record 26-46 40-36
Last 10 record 3-7 5-5
Streak 1L 2W
Over / under record 68-77-5 67-74-9
Runs / game 4.47 3.97
Runs allowed / game 5.03 4.25

 

Preview

Tonight we have the Nationals in Miami to take on the Marlins.  The Nationals were sellers at the deadline and have been getting some looks at their younger prospects as they prepare for next season.  Their pitching has really hurt them this year along with their bats (aside form Juan Soto), they'll look to finish the season out strong.  The Marlins are well out of the playoff picture and are also looking at some of the younger prospects as they too prepare for next season.  The Marlins bats have been abysmal all year as they strikeout at too high of a clip to consistently produce runs.  They'll look to finish the season out strong.

Pitching matchup

Nationals

Josh Rogers (1-0, 2.60 ERA) will be on the mound for the Nationals when they take on the Marlins.  Rogers enters this game with a 1.04 WHIP and 5.82 XFIP.  This season he carries a 17.1% strikeout rate along with a 7.1% walk rate.  Rogers has been decent in his 3 outtings for the Nats this year although the underlying numbers point to some serious regression.  He has been hit hard by right handed hitters, giving up premium contact and power in the split.  This Marlins offense strikes out at a high clip but they also boast some good numbers against left handed pitching this year. In his last outting he handled this Marlins team wtih ease thowing 5 innings of shut out ball while striking out 6 hitters. Rogers benefits from facing a very bad Marlins lineup and will look to avoid the regression bug tonight.

Marlins

Trevor Rogers (7-7, 2.71 ERA) will be on the mound for the Marlins when they host the Nationals.  Rogers enters this game with a 1.17 WHIP and 3.98 XFIP.  This season he carries a ncie 27.7% strikeout rate along with an 8.8% walk rate.  Rogers has been solid this year, inducing soft and poor contact and striking out opposing hitters has made him succesful.  This will be his 4th start back from the IL and he hasn't gone more than 4 innings in any of those starts.  He will likely cap out at 5 innings in this one as the Marlins look to keep the young lefty healthy for years to come.  

Prediction

I'll target the team with the better pitching in this one in the Marlins.  Josh Rogers is due some regression and I think this Marlins team does a little better this time around when they face off.  Trevor Rodgers should be limited in this start but will give way to a Miami bullpen that should be able to keep this weak Nats offense at bay.  

PICK: Marlins (-150)

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