Tigers vs Cardinals Prediction, Pick and Preview, August 25 (8/25): MLB

Tigers vs Cardinals Prediction, Pick and Preview, August 25 (8/25): MLB

Credit: photo by Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

 
Odds
Time 1:15 p.m. EST
Tigers money line +130
Tigers run line +1.5 (-156)
Cardinals money line -154
Cardinals run line -1.5 (+130)
Over / under 9.0 (-120)

 

Key stats
  Tigers Cardinals
Record 61-66 63-61
Road / home record 28-36 34-30
Last 10 record 4-6 5-5
Streak W2 L1
Over / under record 56-67-4 55-62-7
Runs / game 4.37 4.07
Runs allowed / game 4.85 4.26

 

Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals host the Detroit Tigers in the second game of the two game mini-series Wednesday afternoon.  The Tigers took last night's game 4-3, jumping out to a 4-0 lead early before the Cardinals scored 3 in the 8th, but the Tigers held on.  The Tigers have won 3 of 4 after losing their previous 4, while the Cardinals have lost 3 of 4 after previously winning 7 of 9.

At the plate, the Tigers are struggling to score runs.  In their last 8 games, they've only averaged 3.25 runs per game (including a 10 run game), and have averaged 3.25 as well over the last 4.

The Cardinals also have struggle to put runs on the board.  Over their last 4 games (dropping 3 of 4), they've only scored 2.5 runs per game, and have scored 3.1 runs per game in their last 7.

Pitching matchup

Tigers

Tarik Skubal (8-11, 4.02 ERA) pitches for the Tigers.  It's his second MLB season - he pitched a 5.63 ERA in 2020 in 8 games across 32.0 innings.  He's pitched well in August, going a combined 17.2 innings, giving up only 2 earned runs on 16 hits and 2 walks, striking out 17 in the process.  He pitched against the Cardinals at home in June, going 4.2 innings, giving up 2 earned runs on 4 hits and 2 walks, with 4 strikeouts.  Cardinals batters have gone 7 for 24 (.292 AVG) against Skubal, with 1 home run and 4 walks.

Cardinals

Jon Lester (4-6, 5.46 ERA), the 37 year old veteran takes the mound for the Cardinals.  It will be his 5th start for the Cardinals, and he has a 7.08 ERA with the team.  His ERA has steadily creeped up since his phenomenal 2016 season with the Cubs.  Unlike Skubal, Lester has not had a good August since he was acquired by the Cardinals.  In 4 starts, he's gone a combined 20.1 innings, giving up 16 earned runs on 28 hits, with 9 walks and only 8 strikeouts.  He had 1 good appearence at the Royals in those 4 starts.  Tigers batters have gone 24 for 57 (.421 AVG) against Lester, with 2 home runs and 11 walks.

Prediction

Given Lester's performance since joining the Cardinals and Detroit's win last night, we struggle to see how the Cardinals are the favorites.  The Tigers are hitting .421 against Lester, and he's been very poor in 3 of his 4 starts with the Cardinals, only lasting 4-5 innings.  The Cardinals bullpen is middle of the road, so we think the Tigers hit Lester early and hold on for the mini-series sweep.

PICK: Tigers money line (+130)

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