Phillies vs Nationals Prediction, Pick and Preview, August 31 (8/31): MLB

Phillies vs Nationals Prediction, Pick and Preview, August 31 (8/31): MLB

Credit: photo by Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

 
Odds
Time 7:05 p.m. EST
Phillies money line -110
Phillies run line -1.5 (+150)
Nationals money line -110
Nationals run line +1.5 (-169)
Over / under 9.5 (-105)

 

Key stats
  Phillies Nationals
Record 67-64 55-75
Road / home record 28-36 31-34
Last 10 record 6-4 3-7
Streak W4 L3
Over / under record 64-63-4 57-69-4
Runs / game 4.51 4.40
Runs allowed / game 4.64 4.84

 

Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are in Washington for the second game of a three game series against the Nationals.  The Phillies are fighting for the NL East lead and are 3.5 games behind the Braves, and have won 4 straight.  The Nationals have lost all hope of a playoff spot and have dropped 3 straight and 5 of their last 6.

The Phillies batters have been hot, scoring 7 runs in each of their last 4 games and averaging 5.9 runs per game over their last 8.

The Nats are scoring, but pitching has been the problem.  They've averaged 3.7 runs per game over their last 7.

Pitching matchup

Phillies

Matt Moore (2-4, 6.12 ERA) makes the start for the Phillies.  He's been rocky this year, and comes off a 5.52 ERA 2017 and 6.79 ERA 2019, with only two appearances in 2020.  He hasn't done too well in August, going a combined 18.2 innings, giving up 11 earned runs on 16 hits, 8 walks and 17 strikeouts.  He's seen the Nationals three times this year, going a combined 9.0 innings, giving up 8 earned runs on 10 hits, with 2 walks and 7 strikeouts.  Nationals batters have gone 17 for 53 (.321 AVG) against Moore, with 6 home runs, 5 walks and 12 strikeouts.

Nationals

Patrick Corbin (7-13, 6.09 ERA) takes the mound for the Nationals.  He's had a poor 2021, coming off a 4.66 ERA 2021, 3.25 ERA 2019 and 3.15 ERA 2018.  He's only had one good outing in August.  In his 5 starts this month, he's gone a combined 27.0 innings, giving up 22 earned runs on 25 hits, 6 walks and 28 strikeouts.  He's seen the Phillies three times as well this season, going a combined 19.0 innings, giving up 9 earned runs on 19 hits, 2 walks and 19 strikeouts.  Phillies batters have gone 48 for 190 (.253 AVG) against Corbin, with only 4 home runs, 15 walks and 44 strikeouts. 

Prediction

Neither of these two pitchers has done well this month, and Matt Moore has not fared well against the Nationals this season.  The Phillies are in the NL East race, while the Nationals have lost all hope.  It's tough to take the Phillies here given Moore's history vs the Nationals.  Phillies bats are humming, and the Nationals are averaging 3.7 runs per game.  We think the over is the best play, as the starters shouldn't make it too deep and these two bullpens are among the worst - the Nationals' bullpen has a 4.71 ERA and the Phillies' bullpen a 4.56 ERA.  This game should go double digits.

PICK: Over 9.5 (-105)

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