Cubs vs Phillies Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 14  (9/14): MLB

Cubs vs Phillies Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 14 (9/14): MLB

Credit: photo by Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

 
Odds
Time 7:05 p.m. EST
Cubs money line +160
Cubs run line +1.5 (-115)
Phillies money line -195
Phillies run line -1.5 (-105)
Over / under 9.5 (-105)

 

Key stats
  Cubs Phillies
Record 65-79 72-71
Road / home record 26-43 40-31
Last 10 record 6-4 3-7
Streak 3L 1L
Over / under record 64-72-8 70-68-5
Runs / game 4.28 4.55
Runs allowed / game 5.06 4.69

 

Preview

Tonight the Cubs travel to the Keyston State to take on the Phillies.  The Cubs are firmly out of the playoffs as they sit 10 games back for an NL wildcard spot. They were big sellers at the deadline and have been gettign looks at their younger prospects.  Look for them to play spoiler in this series against a playoff hopeful Phillies team.  The Phillies enter this game struggling over their last 10 games.  They currently sit 4.5 games back in the NL East and 2.5 games back for the 2nd wilcard spot.  They'll need to turn the ship around quickly if they have any hope of making the playoffs.

Pitching matchup

Cubs

Adrian Sampson (0-2, 2.20 ERA) will be on the mound for the traveling Cubs today as they take on the Phillies. Sampson enters this game with a 1.16 WHIP and 4.72 XFIP.  This season he boasts an 18.8% strikeout rate along with a 4.3% walk rate.  He is a candidate for some regression when looking at the underlying numbers.  He gives up too much contact and power to both sides of the plate and doesn't have the strikeout stuff to get guys out.  He will have benefit from facing a struggling Phillies team but will still have his work cut out for him in this one.

Phillies

Kyle Gibson (4-3, 4.60 ERA) wil take the mound for the Phillies today when they take on the Cubs.  Gibson has been medicore this year in Texas and Philly.  He enters this game with a 1.38 WHIP and 4.56 XFIP.  This season he carries a 19.6% strikeout rate paired with a 9.3% walk rate.  He has been able to limited hard contact and has been able to keep the ball down evidenced by his low 27.2% fly ball rate. Since joining the Phillies he has gone 47 innings, allowing 24 ER's, walking 18, and striking out 31 hitters.  The projected lineup for the Cubs strikes out at over a 26% clip against right handed pitching this year.  The Cubs do have some power bats in the lineup though so if Gibson can keep his walks down and the power bats in check he should find some success tonight.

Prediction

Both pitchers have been mediocre this year along with both offenses.  I think the Phillies bats along with the Cubs bats wake up in this one and I'll look to target the total.

PICK: Over 9.5 (-105)

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