Orioles vs Yankees Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 4 (9/4): MLB

Credit: photo by Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Odds

Key stats

Preview

The New York Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles in the second of a three game series Saturday afternoon.  The Yankees are 6.5 games behind the Rays in the AL East race and sit atop the Wild Card race.  They've won back to back games and took the first game against the Orioles 4-3 in 11 innings.  They had previously dropped 4 straight.  The Orioles continue to struggle, having lost 6 of their last 7 games.

The Orioles continue to put some runs on the board, but the 5.88 runs per game allowed all season due to their poor pitching keeps them as the worst team in the majors.  They've scored 4.0 runs per game in their last 8 games.

The Yankees haven't been too productive offensively, scoring 4 runs in their last two games agains the Orioles and Angels and 3.7 runs per game over their last 6 games.

Pitching matchup

Orioles

Chris Ellis (1-0, 3.09 ERA) makes his third start for the Orioles.  He's gone 3-4 innings in his three total starts this season (previously with the Rays).  In his two starts with the Orioles, he's gone a combined 7.2 innings, giving up 4 earned runs on 7 hits, 1 walk and 5 striekouts.  

Yankees

Jordan Montgomery (5-5, 3.52 ERA) makes his 25th start for the Yankees this season.  The career-Yankee comes off two bad seasons, with a 6.75 ERA 2019 and 5.11 ERA 2020, but is pitching much better this season and echoing his 2017-2018 seasons with the Yankees.  He had a good August, starting 4 times and going a combined 20.2 innings, giving up 17 hits, 7 walks and 16 strikeouts.  Orioles batters have gone 19 for 64 against Montgomery (.297 AVG), with only 1 home run and 1 walk, striking out 19 times.  He's seen the Orioles three times this season, with one very poor game (3.0 innings and 5 earned runs) and two good games (11.0 combined innings with 2 earned runs).

Prediction

It's always easy to pick against the Orioles, and we wouldn't recommend taking the money line.  Ellis isn't bad, but this will come down to the bullpen for the Orioles in the 4th or 5th inning, and the Orioles bullpen has a league-worst 5.40 ERA.  The Yankees bullpen is the 5th best, with a 3.39 ERA.  Montgomery has had a good August, but the Yankees aren't hitting the ball terribly well, while the Orioles are actually putting runs on the board.

The run line has hit for the Orioles in their last 3 and 6 of their last 9, so they're keeping it close.  At +140 odds, we see value in that.

PICK: Orioles +1.5 (+140)

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