Nationals vs Marlins Prediction, Pick and Preview, August 26: MLB

Nationals vs Marlins Prediction, Pick and Preview, August 26: MLB

Credit: photo by Jeff Hanisch

 
Odds
Time 7:10 p.m. EST
Nationals money line -108
Nationals run line -1.0 (+128)
Marlins money line -110
Marlins run line +1.0 (-152)
Over / under 7.5 

 

Key stats
  Nationals Marlins
Record 54-71 52-75
Road / home record 23-38 31-31
Last 10 record 4-6 2-8
Streak L1 W1
Over / under record 53-67-4 57-62-6
Runs / game 4.42 3.97
Runs allowed / game 4.82 4.27

 

Preview

The Nationals will finish up a three-game set with the Marlins here as they enter the rubber match. Washington won the series opener 5-1 and then Miami won the second game 4-3 in 10 innings. 

Washington has had the upper hand in the season series against their divisional rival as they have won eight of the 11 games they have played this season. 

These offenses haven't been great lately as the Nationals are scoring 4.2 runs in their last five games while the Marlins are scoring just 2.6 runs per game in that same stretch. 

Pitching matchup

Nationals

Patrick Corbin (7-12, 5.82 ERA) will be taking the mound here for the Washington Nationals. He is coming off a victory over the Milwaukee Brewers where he went 6.1 innings and allowed a run on three hits with no walks and seven strikeouts last time out. With facing a divisional rival, that means he has faced this lineup before and Miami's hitters are hitting 11-for-50 (.220) off him with three home runs and seven RBI. Corbin has been a good pitcher at times and going against a weak lineup should help him gain some momentum. 

Marlins

Elieser Hernandez (0-1, 4.15 ERA) will be making his fifth start this season for the Miami Marlins. He is coming off a losing effort against the Cincinnati Reds where he allowed five runs (four earned) on five hits with a hit-by-pitch, two walks (one intentional), and six strikeouts in just 4.2 innings. He faced the Nationals once last season and hitters struggled against him as they combined for 3-of-18 (.167) with two of those hits being solo home runs. If he can keep the ball in the field of play, they will be thrilled.  

Prediction

Whenever the home team gets a run on the run line, that always makes my ears perk up. Patrick Corbin has not been a great pitcher this season and the Marlins hitters have seen Corbin a lot and know what to expect. Elieser Hernandez is still a young pitcher and this Nationals lineup isn't putting up a huge amount of runs scored. These teams are coming off an extra-inning game so they are closer than the stats show. All in all, go with the Marlins getting the run line here. 

PICK: Miami Marlins +1 (-152)

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