Pirates vs Cubs Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 3 (9/3): MLB

Credit: photo by Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports

Odds

Key stats

Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are at Wrigley for the second game of a four game series against the Chicago Cubs.  The Cubs took the first game 6-5 in extras, with a big 5 run 7th inning.  The Pirates have now dropped 3 straight and lost 5 of 6.  The Cubs have won 3 straight and won 4 of 5.

The Pirates have failed to score many runs recently (and all season), with only 3.33 runs per game in their last 3 and 2.83 runs per game in their last 6.

Cubs bats have done just enough recently to get some wins.  They've scored an average of 4 runs per game in their 3 game win streak and an equal 4 runs per game in their last 5 games.

Pitching matchup

Pirates

Steven Brault (0-3, 4.57 ERA) takes the mound for the Pirates.  He's coming off a solid 3.38 ERA 2020 after a poort 5.16 ERA 2019.  He's making only his sixth start this season, all coming in August.  He got beat up by the Cardinals in his last game, going 3.0 innings with 7 earned runs.  In his five starts before that game he went a combined 18.2 innings, giving up only 4 earned runs on 16 hits, with 4 walks and 13 strikeouts.  Cubs batters have gone 9 for 31 against Brault (.290 AVG), with no homers, 5 walks and 7 strikeouts.

Cubs

Alec Mills (6-6, 4.32 ERA) pitches for the Cubs, making his 15th start this season.  He's historically been a ~4 ERA pitcher, with a shortened but good 2019 season with a 2.75 ERA.  He had a strong August outside of one terrible game against the Royals, where he went 4.0 innings and gave up 7 earned runs on 12 hits.  In his other 4 starts, he went a combined 22.1 innings, giving up only 4 earned runs on 20 hits, 5 walks, with 13 strikeouts.  His last outing against the White Sox was a gem, lasting 8.1 innings with no earned runs, 4 hits and 2 walks.  Pirates batters have gone 10 for 34 (.294 AVG) against Mills, with 3 home runs, 3 walks and 6 strikeouts.

Prediction

Picking a winner here is tough, as both teams have nothing to play for.  Clearly the Cubs are on a mini-streak, but Brault has pitched very well in 5 of 6 starts this season.  Mills likewise has done very well in 4 of his 5 last starts, and his last outing was almost a complete game.  Bats on both sides fail to score many runs, so we think the over at 9.0 is too high and think this game will have only 5-6 runs.

PICK: Under 9.0 (-110)

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