Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 5 (10/5): MLB

Credit: photo by Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

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Preview

The postseason is here and we get a juicy AL wildcard matchup to start things off as the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will face off in Fenway. Boston had the slight upper hand against the Yankees this season as they had a record of 10-9 when they faced off. Both offenses boast quality hitting up and down the lineup, while the Yankees have the upper hand in the bullpen, despite their youth. This is the AL wildcard matchup everyone wanted and I fully expect it to not dissapoint. 

The Yankees enter this game in very good form, despite dropping a couple games to the Rays in their final series. They enter this game with some key injuries as DJ LeMahieu and Luke Voit were put on the IL. Over the past month the Yankees boast a top 8 offense on the road and had the highest hard hit rate in the month of September, while also dropping their strikeout rate by a full point. They will need that trend to continue in tonight's matchup against Eovaldi and the Red Sox if they want to win this winner take all game.

The Red Sox enter this game in decent form as they were able to sweep the Nationals in their final series after struggling against the lowly Orioles prior. They are also battling a key injury as JD Martinez will not play in this one as he battles an ankle injury. Entering this game the Red Sox boast one of the best home offenses in the league over the past month. They will need Eovaldi to be at his best in this one and go deep as the Boston pen has had its struggles this season.   

Pitching matchup

Yankees

Gerrit Cole (16-8, 3.23 ERA) will be on the mound for the Yankees when they take on the Red Sox in Boston. Cole enters this game with a 1.06 WHIP and 3.12 XFIP. This season he carries a 34.6% strikeout rate along with a 5.8% walk rate. Cole has been excellent this year despite struggling for a month after the substance crack down at the beginning of June. When you take the month of June out (as an adjustment period) and start from July on he was 8-4 with a 3.95 ERA, 3.02 XFIP, and went 2-1 against this Red Sox team, not allowing more than 3 runs in those meetings. Over the last month though Cole has been hit extremely hard, allowing an average exit velo higher than 91 mph.  This power has mainly come against same handed hitters as Cole has allowed a .309 ISO and .433 wOBA in the split in the past month. The projected Red Sox lineup boasts a .217 ISO, .341 wOBA, and 22.7% strikeout rate this season against right handed pitching, some very good numbers. Cole will need to be a bit more efficient than he has been as this Yankees bullpen is good but lacks playoff experience as it is young. Cole will need to turn things around tonight against one of the tougher home teams in the league in the Red Sox.   

Red Sox

Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 ERA) will be on the bump for the Red Sox when they host the Yankees. Eovaldi enters this game with a 1.19 WHIP and 3.80 XFIP. This season he carries a 25.7% strikeout rate along with a 4.9% walk rate. Eovaldi has been solid for Boston when called upon, and besides his little hiccup when he faced this Yankees team on September 24th and allowed 7 runs in 2.2 innings he's otherwise been very good this season against this Yankees team not allowing more than 2 runs in his other 5 outtings against them. This Yankees team boasts a .189 ISO, .316 wOBA, and 25.1% strikeout rate, against right handed pitching, some decent numbers. Eovaldi has been able to limit the hard contact against right handed hitters but has been hit hard against left handed hitters in the split this season. He will have his work cut of for himself tonight against a strong Yankees linuep despite some key injuries.

Prediction

We have a pretty even matchup in this one tonight as both teams have elite offenses though Boston has been slightly better on the season. The Yankees come in with the better bullpen, though they don't have experience and they are young. When it comes to the postseason nobody has a long leash and it comes down to the matchups out of the bullpen. I'll look to target the total in this one as I think both teams are able to put up some runs tonight.

PICK: Over 8  (-110)

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