Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 10 (10/10): NFL Week 5

Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 10 (10/10): NFL Week 5

Credit: photo by Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

 
Odds
Time 1:00 p.m. EST
Dolphins money line +400
Dolphins spread 10
Buccaneers money line -417
Buccaneers spread -9.5
Over / under 48.5

 

2021 season stats
  Dolphins Buccaneers
Record 1-3 3-1
Road / home record 1-1 2-0
Points per game 15.5 30.5
Points allowed per game 27.3 26.3
Pass yards per game 174 328
Rush yards per game 78 72
Total yards per game 278 411
Total yards allowed per game 388 375
Turnover ratio 0 +1

 

Preview

The Dolphins visit Florida to face the reigning Super Bowl champions the Buccaneers and Tom Brady.  Brady's record against the Dolphins is the second-worst of his career against teams he's played at least 8 times having won 23 and losing 12.  Both teams are dealing with injuries and 2020 first-round draft pick Tua Tagovailoa will remain sidelined for this week's matchup.  Will Fuller was also just placed on IR, Davante Parker has been limited in practice with a shoulder injury and star corner Xavien Howard is carrying a shoulder injury designation.  The Bucs have been ravaged by injuries in defense more so in their secondary which should be Richard Sherman earn another start.  

Offensive matchup

Miami's offense was struggling prior to Tua's injury and things didn't get better after the sophomore QB went down.  Jacoby Brissett since taking over has completed 76 to 119 passes for 583, 2 TDs and an INT.  Jaylen Waddle leads the team with 25 receptions going for 200 yards.  DeVante Parker leads in yards with 242 but is questionable going into this weekend.  Mike Gesicki is the only other wide player with more than 100 yards so far racking up 184 from 18 catches.  Their running game has been non-existent.  Myles Gaskin has rushed for a measly 142 yards from 29 carries and newcomer Malcolm Brown hasn't been better.  Overall, Miami ranks 31st of 32 in total yards on offense.

Tom Brady is behind only Matt Stafford and Derek Carr in yards this season throwing for 1,356 in 4 games.  He will have Mike Evans for this weekend but will once again be without his favorite tight end Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin were both listed with injuries even though they were full participants in practice.  Godwin leads the team with 296 yards through the air and Evans follows closely with 280.  Giovanni Bernard is dealing with knee issues, but leading rusher Leonard Fournette should be involved.  The Bucs rushing offense hasn't been good though, ranking only above the Patriots and the Steelers in total rush yards, but their passing offense ranks 2nd best in the league. 

Defensive matchup

Xavien Howard and safety Byron Jones both carried injury designations in Wednesday's practice but were full participants.  Miami will definitely need them to cope with the Bucs' potent passing offense.  Linebacker Jerome Baker has been the team's busiest defensive player leading the Dolphins with 29 tackles and 3 forced fumbles.  Tackle Christian Wilkins also has 22 tackles.  

The Bucs have had a rough opening month defensively.  Their passing defense was the worst in the league before Thursday night's game; a result of losing Jamel Dean, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis to injury.  They signed Richard Sherman to shore the secondary just over a week ago.  Antoine Winfield Jr. and defensive end Pat O'Connor have already been ruled out for Week 5 and Jason Pierre-Paul is questionable with a shoulder injury.  In stark contrast to their passing defense, the Bucs rush defense is the best in the league surrendering only 190 yards and a single TD on the ground. 

Prediction

Miami isn't good enough on either side of the ball to go keep up with Tampa Bay for 4 quarters, especially if their key defensive players won't be in action.  The Bucs' offense is too much for Miami to handle either way.  Miami's offense was shut out in Week 2 and only scored more than 20 points at the Raiders; they've struggled against teams with stout defenses.  Expect the Dolphins to struggle again on the road.

PICK: Buccaneers money line (-417)

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