Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, Pick and Preview, August 31 (8/31): MLB

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, Pick and Preview, August 31 (8/31): MLB

Credit: photo by Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

 
Odds
Time 7:10 p.m. EST
Red Sox money line +138
Red Sox run line +1.5 (-152)
Rays money line -164
Rays run line -1.5 (+126)
Over / under 8.5 (-120)

 

Key stats
  Red Sox Rays
Record 75-58 83-48
Road / home record 34-32 42-23
Last 10 record 6-4 9-1
Streak L2 W8
Over / under record 60-70-3 72-54-5
Runs / game 5.07 5.35
Runs allowed / game 4.59 4.10

 

Preview

The Boston Red Sox are in Tampa Bay for the second game of a four game series against the AL East leading Rays.  The Red Sox are holding on to a Wild Card spot, but have dropped their last 2 games after winning 3 straight and 5 of 6.  The Rays are hot, taking the first game of the series 6-1.  They've now won 8 in a row and 12 of 13.

The Red Sox laid an egg last night, but have averaged 6.5 runs per game over their last 8 games.

Rays bats continue to produce runs.  They've averaged 6.9 runs per game over their 8 game winnings streak and 7.2 runs per game over their last 13 games.

Pitching matchup

Red Sox

Undecided

Rays

Ryan Yarbrough (7-4, 4.57 ERA) pitches for the Rays.  He's been consistent, with a 3.91 ERA 2018, 4.13 ERA 2019, 3.56 ERA 2020 and now a 4.57 ERA 2021.  He's pitched hot and cold in August, giving up 5 earned runs on 5.0 innings last outing against the Red Sox.  Before that, he had 4 starts, going a combined 22.2 innings, with 10 earned runs on 22 hits, 5 walks and 20 strikeouts.  He's faced the Red Sox three times this season, all of those games were terrible starts.  He's gone a combined 12.0 innings, giving up 16 earned runs on 18 hits, 3 walks and 6 strikeouts.  Red Sox batters have gone 44 for 115 (.383 AVG) against Yarbrough, with 9 home runs, 7 walks and only 19 strikeouts.

Prediction

Whoever is pitching for the Red Sox, we see this one going over.  The Red Sox have averaged 6.5 runs per game over their last 8, while the Rays have averaged 6.9 runs over the same period and 7.2 runs per game over their last 13 - the bats are hot.  Yarbrough has given up 16 earned runs to the Red Sox in just 12.0 innings, and Red Sox batters are hitting .383 off him in 44 at bats with an astounding 9 home runs (less than 1 in 5 at bats).

PICK: Over 8.5 (-120)

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